Author Topic: 薄案有风险,可能会低调解决----华盛顿邮报  (Read 3658 times)

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Offline masquerade

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薄案有风险,可能会低调解决----华盛顿邮报
« on: June 20, 2012, 12:06:22 PM »
Risks over Bo Xilai case could prompt China to seek low-profile resolution
By Keith B. Richburg, Published: June 15The Washington Post

BEIJING — As they prepare for a once-in-a-generation turnover of power, China’s leaders appear to be seeking a quick and quiet resolution in the case of Bo Xilai, a top official ousted from his Communist Party posts, Western diplomats and Chinese analysts say.

Rather than risk a sensational trial, authorities appear most likely to simply expel Bo from the party, a step that could be taken swiftly and out of public view, the diplomats and analysts said. Such an approach would be intended to minimize public scrutiny of a Chinese system of graft and greed that Bo has come to symbolize.

A foreign diplomat with access to senior Chinese leaders said he had been told that Bo’s case would be handled soon, before the 18th party congress convenes this fall to settle on the country’s new leadership team.

Bo has been the target of wide-ranging corruption allegations since his wife, Gu Kailai, and a household aide were arrested on suspicion of killing a British businessman, Neil Heywood. Bo has not been accused in Heywood’s death, but his downfall has focused attention on questionable dealings involving one of China’s most powerful families, including allegations that Bo family members used their political connections to secure lucrative business deals and prime positions.

In the past, the party has typically used corruption cases to bring down some powerful and prominent officials, including former Beijing mayor Chen Xitong, who lost out in a power struggle and was jailed on embezzlement charges in 1995, and former Shanghai mayor Chen Liangyu, who was fired in 2006 and sentenced to prison two years later after being convicted of misusing local pension funds. Chen Liangyu is thought to have fallen afoul of President Hu Jintao.

Bo’s elder brother, Bo Xiyong — who also goes by the name Li Xueming — served as a director and vice chairman of China Everbright International, an alternative-energy company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and reportedly earned millions in stock options before stepping down in April. A younger brother, Bo Xicheng, a director of several state-owned firms, has been involved in lucrative investments in Dalian, where Bo Xilai served as mayor. And two of Gu’s sisters are widely reported to have financial holdings worth more than $100 million through a web of business ventures stretching from Shenzhen to the British Virgin Islands.

But the behavior of Bo Xilai — and his family — was quite typical for a high-ranking member of the ruling party’s Politburo, analysts and others said. And prosecuting Bo on corruption charges would only expose the depth of the problem and the flaws in the party’s self-policing system.

“The fact is, so many leaders are corrupt — it’s a widely pervasive phenomenon,” said Cheng Li, a scholar with the Brookings Institution in Washington and an expert on China’s leadership. “The media — the Chinese and foreign media — will continue to go after corruption. The public will still talk about corruption.” But for the party, he said, “the emphasis will be on the other, criminal things.” He said Gu could face corruption charges — but not before the party congress.

Bo was a popular, charismatic and media-savvy figure — a rare standout for a Communist Party leader — and he seemed destined for a seat on the powerful nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, which in effect runs the country. And, though ousted, he enjoys significant residual support in Chongqing, where he was the party chief and was credited with improving ordinary people’s living standards.

Bo also became a hero among China’s “new leftists” for his advocacy of a more equitable distribution of wealth and his “red revival” campaign, including organized singing pageants of Mao-era revolutionary songs.

Given his popular following, Chinese authorities would want any punishment of Bo to be accepted as legitimate. And a corruption trial, in a system in which graft has become so widespread, is unlikely to pass public scrutiny.

“His collapse was not caused by his corruption problem but purely because of a political struggle,” said Willy Wo Lap Lam, a longtime China watcher who is with the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “In order to maintain the unity of the party before the 18th party congress, the Central Committee is going to make Bo’s case a single, individual case without prosecuting any more [of his] allies . . . and without prosecuting Bo for his economic problems.” Lam and others predicted that the top leaders would reach a decision at their regular summer retreat at the seaside resort of Beidaihe.

“Compared to other families in the party, the corruption problem of Bo’s family is not necessarily very serious,” Lam said. “So it’s not very legitimate for them to prosecute Bo for corruption. And they face the risk of expanding the problem to other party members. Right now, unity and stability within the party is their first priority.”

Experts who monitor corruption among China’s leaders, as well as internal government reports, say Bo’s case is just the tip of a graft iceberg, with corruption reaching all levels of the party.

A Central Bank report last year said that from the mid-1990s to 2008, as many as 18,000 people — Communist Party and government officials, members of the public security branch and top officials of state-owned enterprises — had fled China with more than $120 billion in stolen public funds. It said most of the money was laundered to the United States, Australia or countries in Southeast Asia, disguised as legitimate business transactions.

Corruption has persisted, even worsened, despite the stated efforts of Premier Wen Jiabao and other top leaders to rein in the problem. The party has taken steps announced with much public fanfare, such as requiring all officials at higher than the county level to disclose their assets. That regulation was later amended to require that officials also disclose the assets of family members.

And like other measures intended to combat corruption, those regulations have largely been ignored or proven ineffective. There remains no requirement that the asset declarations be made public.

The biggest obstacle to reform, experts said, is a lack of political will.

“Only when the regime is endangered and stability is threatened will they really start to combat corruption,” said Ren Jianming, a Tsinghua University professor and director of the Center for Integrity Research and Education, which studies corrupt practices.


Researcher Zhang Jie in Beijing contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/risks-over-bo-xilai-case-could-prompt-china-to-seek-low-profile-resolution/2012/06/14/gJQAdJHmeV_story_1.html
« Last Edit: June 20, 2012, 12:10:33 PM by masquerade »
牺牲,不如深沉的韧性的战斗。

Offline masquerade

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Re: 薄案有风险,可能会低调解决----华盛顿邮报
« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2012, 11:25:06 AM »
时间有限,匆忙地翻译了一下。没有翻完,只有大概前面三分之一。剩下的回头补上。
另,翻译不完全,原文有些在中国人人皆知的内容没有翻译。

重点:这是我自己翻译的,不代表维基解密论坛的观点,也不是官方翻译。方便大家阅读而已。
有问题可以直接查对原文。

维基解密的立场:只披露信息,不反对任何政府。






薄熙来案件有风险,中国可能会低调判决

中国领导人在准备难得一次的权力交替,对于薄熙来的案件,可能会快速且安静地判决。

根据外交家和分析人士的观点,与其造成耸动的社会新闻,当局更可能简单地将薄开除党籍,这一迅速的动作可以避开公众视线,最大程度上弱化群众监督,而薄目前的形象正是中国的体系性贪腐。

一位与中国高层领导人有接触的外国外交家说,薄案可能很快就进行处理,赶在十八大换届之前。

薄妻谷开来以及私人助手由于涉嫌谋杀英国商人Neil Heywood而被逮捕,随后,薄就受到广泛地贪腐指控。薄目前尚未卷入Haywood之死,但是作为中国最有权势家族之一,他的垮台使公众都关注到他们的可疑交易,包括薄家成员使用政治关系为他们的收益颇丰的生意以及优势地位进行保驾护航。

过去,中共经常借反贪为借口打击一些高位官员,包括前北京市长陈希同和前上海市长陈良宇。陈良宇的倒台,被认为是和胡锦涛之间的矛盾所致。

薄的兄长薄熙永,又名李学明,是中国光大国际的董事兼副主席。中国光大国际是一家新能源公司,在香港证交所上市。据称,薄熙永在四月案发前已经在认股权方面赚取了几百万。薄弟薄熙成是数个国有企业董事,参与了大连一些回报很高的投资。外界广泛认为,谷的两位姐妹通过从深圳到英属维京群岛
一系列合资业务网络,拥有超过一亿美元财产。

分析师及其他人士说,作为一个政治局成员,薄熙来及其家庭的行为非常典型。因贪污罪起诉薄,只会更深地暴露出问题以及党内自我管理系统的缺陷。

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的Cheng Li是中国领导阶层研究专家,他说:“事实上,中国领导人贪污是一种普遍现象。媒体----国内媒体和境外媒体----会继续追讨腐败。公众将继续讨论这一话题。”但是对于政党,他说:“他们会把重点放在其他地方,比如刑事案件。”他说谷可能遭到贪污指控,但不会在十八大之前。

牺牲,不如深沉的韧性的战斗。


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