Author Topic: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111  (Read 2775 times)

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TrxiZ

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[alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
« on: March 02, 2014, 12:16:20 PM »
this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

 so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
 whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
 says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
 is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
 is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

 so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
 influence over the situation? this is something we need to address in
 ukraine reassessment

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------

 From: "Marc Lanthemann" <[email protected]>
 To: "Alpha List" <[email protected]>
 Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
 Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

 CODE: UA111
 PUBLICATION: yes
 ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
 DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
 HANDLER: Lauren


 

 Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
 But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
 this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
 begin with.

 

 You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
 power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
 Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
 solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
 Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
 easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
 her in trouble and arrested.

 

 But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
 respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
 made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
 deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
 Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
 the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
 military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
 it had been pushing for.

 

 So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
 the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
 to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
 demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

 

 Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
 to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
 against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
 will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

 --

 Lauren Goodrich
 Senior Eurasia Analyst
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.744.4311
 F: 512.744.4334
 [email protected]
 www.stratfor.com