Author Topic: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate  (Read 2409 times)

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Offline jujyjuji

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Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
« on: June 30, 2014, 15:28:42 PM »
Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate

Released on 2013-09-24 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 3501692
Date unspecified
From [email protected]
To [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
 ---

The jihadists will not ctrl - just try to exploit the anarchy for their own purposes.
-------
Kamran Bokhari
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
Senior Analyst, Middle East/South Asia
T: 202-251-6636
F: 202-429-8655
[email protected]
www.stratfor.com

-----Original Message-----
From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 16:30:58
To:"Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar" <[email protected]>, "Analysts" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate

Willl tge jihadists actually control the region. As this division becomes viable, sunnis in iraq will deal with the jihaidsrs. But the sunnis need turkey against the kurds and the turks have a priority interest against the kurds. They are not getting into the eu anyway. As for eu actions, that will be blocked by others and individual countries will follow their own track. The french have already shown their direwction. Not clear what other countries do. Eu mewmbership is not going to happen anyway. A lot of european investment in turkey. Isolation won't happen.
 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry

-----Original Message-----
From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:27:05
To:<[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar" <[email protected]>, "Analysts" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate

That still doesn't account for the EU and for sure if Turkey openly supports
a Jihadi insurgency against the Kurds it can forget about the EU and etc.

But does Turkey have to openly support the insurgents in order to keep the
Kurds contained and prevent the formation of a Kurdish state?

Are there other options open to Ankara? And can it openly support a
mainstream Sunni Arab coalition in Baghdad and under the table provides
arms/material support to the insurgents in their war against the Kurds?

And finally, why are the Sunni Arab insurgents fighting a war against the
Kurds in the north? Isn't the greater threat from the Shiites in central and
southern Iraq?


----- Original Message -----
From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
To: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>; "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar"
<[email protected]>; "Analysts" <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2006 7:18 PM
Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate

 > First, the us can't afford to alienate another islamic power. Second, it
> will lose congeress and that will strip it of authority. Third, it needsd
> the sunnis viable top countertbalance iran. All us calculations of the
> past are gone. The baker report will drive that home. The turks know this.
>
> Its a new ball game. Bush has lost freedom of maneuver.

> Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:16:49
> To:<[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar"
> <[email protected]>, "Analysts"
> <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>
> Why isn't Washington in a position to blacklist Turkey? Bush Admin's
> number
> one goal to keep a lid on Iraq..if Turkey starts messing with that,
> Washington will have no choice but to fight back.
>
> Secondly, DC isn't the only on in the mix and from Turkey's standpoint the
> EU is a much more important issue. Not sure how far this whole joining the
> EU thing is ever going to go but the government has pushed it hard -
> inside
> Turkey - for years and to lose it now would definitely undermine internal
> stability. Not to mention that Turkey is at a critical point in its
> national
> development. Is it traditional Islamic or modern? The urbanites say
> modern,
> the villages say traditional but give us satellites and SUVs.
> At the top of Turkey's agenda is domestic stability...the Kurds are an
> issue
> but not worth risking riots in Istanbul.
>

>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
> To: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>; "Bokhari, Kamran
> Asghar"
> <[email protected]>; "Analysts"
> <[email protected]>
> Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2006 7:11 PM
> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>
>
>>I do not bekieve that at this point washington is in a position to
>>alienate
>>turkey. Dc is not a factor for the next two years. Turkey has a window of
>>opportunity to put the kurd genie back in the bottle. It will not have
>>another one for a long time.

>> Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:10:16
>> To:<[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar"
>> <[email protected]>, "Analysts"
>> <[email protected]>
>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>
>> Alienation from US and EU is a big one - lots of subsquent costs
>> And don't forget that the regime itself is always fighting to keep the
>> Islamists in check inside Turkey...
>>
>> Still, there are plenty of benefits to be gained. Anyway the Turks can
>> align
>> with the 'mainstream' Sunnis in the Triangle and back them against the
>> Kurds
>> without the US/EU going ballastic?
>>

>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
>> To: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>; "Bokhari, Kamran
>> Asghar"
>> <[email protected]>; "Analysts"
>> <[email protected]>
>> Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2006 7:06 PM
>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>
>>
>>> I'd say the benefits outweeigh the costsz.
>>> Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
>>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:05:49
>>> To:<[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar"
>>> <[email protected]>, "Analysts"
>>> <[email protected]>
>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>
>>> Benefits for Ankara:
>>> Control over critical oil imports from Kir* and Mosul
>>> Greater - though not total - control over the seperatist Kurds
>>> Greater influence in Baghdad (if the insurgent government gets control
>>> there) and by extension, power projection onto both Iran and Syria.
>>>
>>>
>>> Costs
>>> Alienation of the United States and Europe
>>> Loss of EU bid (not sure if this is going to happen anyway)
>>> Target of Iranian aggression
>>> Rise of Islamist radicalism within Turkey
>>>

>>>
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
>>> To: "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar" <[email protected]>;
>>> "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>; "Analysts"
>>> <[email protected]>
>>> Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2006 6:59 PM
>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>
>>>
>>>> Let's think this through from a turkish standpoint.
>>>> Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar" <[email protected]>
>>>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 15:56:13
>>>> To:[email protected], "Jamie Etheridge"
>>>> <[email protected]>, "Analysts List"
>>>> <[email protected]>
>>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>
>>>> If Iraq collapses, this are will be similar to Afghanistan (1992-2001).
>>>>
>>>> As for Turkey, they are already indulging themselves on the issue of
>>>> "Sunni rights over Kir*."

>>>> -------
>>>> Kamran Bokhari
>>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>> Senior Analyst, Middle East/South Asia
>>>> T: 202-251-6636
>>>> F: 202-429-8655
>>>> [email protected]
>>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: "George Friedman" <[email protected]>
>>>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 15:50:09
>>>> To:"Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>, "Analysts"
>>>> <[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar"
>>>> <[email protected]>
>>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>
>>>> The economic viability if this region is dubious without kir*. Wiukd
>>>> turkey support a sunni attack on the kurds?

>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
>>>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 18:36:40
>>>> To:"Analysts List" <[email protected]>, "Bokhari, Kamran
>>>> Asghar"
>>>> <[email protected]>
>>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>
>>>> Is that what we are going to call it...Sunnidom?
>>>>
>>>> I like Caliphateland or how bout the Islamic Revolutionary Republic of
>>>> Jihad?

>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: "Bokhari, Kamran Asghar" <[email protected]>
>>>> To: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>; "Analysts List"
>>>> <[email protected]>
>>>> Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2006 6:34 PM
>>>> Subject: Re: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> We had forecasted how the jihadists would take advantage of the Shia
>>>>> moves
>>>>> to secure and enhance their own position within Sunnidom.

>>>>> -------
>>>>> Kamran Bokhari
>>>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>> Senior Analyst, Middle East/South Asia
>>>>> T: 202-251-6636
>>>>> F: 202-429-8655
>>>>> [email protected]
>>>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: "Jamie Etheridge" <[email protected]>
>>>>> Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 18:07:11
>>>>> To:"'Analysts List'" <[email protected]>
>>>>> Subject: Iraq - Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Federal Iraq prompts Sunni rebels to proclaim own emirate
>>>>>
>>>>> by Taieb Mahjoub
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> DUBAI, Oct 15, 2006 (AFP) - A Sunni Arab insurgent alliance
>>>>>
>>>>> proclaimed an independent Islamic emirate in Sunni-populated areas
>>>>>
>>>>> of central and northern Iraq Sunday after MPs approved a federal
>>>>>
>>>>> constitution for the war-torn country.
>>>>>
>>>>> In video footage screened by the Arabic news channel Al-Jazeera,
>>>>>
>>>>> a spokesman for the Al-Qaeda-sponsored Alliance of the Anointed
>>>>>
>>>>> called on Iraq's disenchanted Sunni Arab former elite to "pledge
>>>>>
>>>>> allegiance to the emir of the believers, Sheikh Abu Omar
>>>>>
>>>>> al-Baghdadi," a previously unknown nom de guerre.
>>>>>
>>>>> The spokesman set maximal boundaries for the breakaway Sunni
>>>>>
>>>>> Arab state, saying that it would include parts of the mainly Shiite
>>>>>
>>>>> provinces of Babil and Wasit south of Baghdad along with the whole
>>>>>
>>>>> of the confessionally mixed capital and province of Diyala, and the
>>>>>
>>>>> key northern cities of Kir* and Mosul.
>>>>>
>>>>> The spokesman said the proclamation "comes after the Kurds
>>>>>
>>>>> formed an alliance in the northern state and the rejectionists
>>>>>
>>>>> (Shiites) won approval for autonomy in southern and central Iraq."
>>>>>
>>>>> Speaking under a black banner bearing the Muslim profession of
>>>>>
>>>>> faith, the spokesman, whose face was disguised electronically on the
>>>>>
>>>>> video, called on Sunni insurgents, clergy and tribal leaders to work
>>>>>
>>>>> for the realisation of the breakaway emirate.
>>>>>
>>>>> He called for every sacrifice to be made to retain Baghdad as
>>>>>
>>>>> capital of the mooted Sunni Arab state, even though the former elite
>>>>>
>>>>> form a minority in the city.
>>>>>
>>>>> "Baghdad, the capital of the Islamic caliphate... was built by
>>>>>
>>>>> our own ancestors and it will only be taken from us over our dead
>>>>>
>>>>> bodies," he said.
>>>>>
>>>>> Iraq's Kurdish minority already enjoys broad autonomy in three
>>>>>
>>>>> far-northern provinces and wants that extended to include the oil
>>>>>
>>>>> city of Kir* as well as parts of Diyala province and the Nineveh
>>>>>
>>>>> governorate based on Mosul.
>>>>>
>>>>> The Iraqi parliament Wednesday approved a law which would allow
>>>>>
>>>>> the country's other 15 provinces to hold referendums to merge
>>>>>
>>>>> themselves into larger autonomous regions under a federal
>>>>>
>>>>> constitution, in a move seen as paving the way for Shiite autonomy
>>>>>
>>>>> in the centre and south.
>>>>>
>>>>> Only 138 of parliament's 275 MPs took part in the vote, giving
>>>>>
>>>>> it the barest of majorities, in the face of strong opposition from
>>>>>
>>>>> Arab nationalists among the Sunnis as well as some Shiites.
>>>>>
>>>>> Champions of a federal Iraq maintain it is the best way to hold
>>>>>
>>>>> the country together in the face of the sectarian tensions unleashed
>>>>>
>>>>> by the replacement of Saddam Hussein's Sunni Arab-dominated regime
>>>>>
>>>>> with a Shiite majority-led administration.
>>>>>
>>>>> But detractors argue that it will inexorably lead to the
>>>>>
>>>>> partition of a country which was created as recently as the early
>>>>>
>>>>> 20th century by imperial Britain.
>>>>>
>>>>> The new insurgent alliance was announced only Thursday by the
>>>>>
>>>>> main rebel umbrella group, the Mujahedeen Consultative Council,
>>>>>
>>>>> following what it said was the adhesion of three other sectarian or
>>>>>
>>>>> tribal factions.

>>>>>
>>>>> tm/kir/srm
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> AFP 151454 GMT OCT 06
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>

---

Source/More: https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/35/3501692_re-iraq-sunni-rebels-to-proclaim-own-emirate-.html
« Last Edit: June 30, 2014, 15:31:22 PM by jujyjuji »