Author Topic: Fwd: FW: interview request - O'Reilly Factor - Lybia, MiddleEast  (Read 1772 times)

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Offline jujyjuji

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I think this GIFile contains important info:

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Re: Fwd: FW: interview request - O'Reilly Factor

Released on 2012-10-18 17:00 GMT
Email-ID    398546
Date    2011-02-21 20:22:01
From    [email protected]
To    [email protected]

Thanks George - I've sent these off to Porter, his senior producer

On 2/21/2011 11:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:

1: By fall we mean will the Qaddafi government fall. This isn't certain but it is becoming more likely. The army appears to have split and the tribes that had supported him are no longer supporting him. Unless he
rallies the country, we could see him fall or see a civil war among the
tribes
.


2: At this moment, it does not appear that any other regime is more
likely to fall. But this has been like popcorn. One crisis subsides and another breaks out. Bahrain was last week but they seem to have gotten things under control. For the now, Libya is the most likely.

Yemen is having a crisis but the bulk of the tribes appear with the government. It is one to watch. Iran had a puny attempt at a rising and it was completely crushed. They seem solid. The decision by Obama and Clinton to encourage the rising hurt the rising badly. Would have failed anyone, but they made the dissidents appear to be unpatriotic and pro-American.

Yemen could deteriorate and we could have rising elsewhere that we don't
anticipate, like Algeria. Of course the one country to watch is Saudi Arabia. If there is a rising there--and I don't think there will be one that isn't crushed in minutes--that will be the one that will change the world.

-------- Original Message --------

Subject: FW: interview request - O'Reilly Factor
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2011 11:01:41 -0600
From: Meredith Friedman <[email protected]>
To: 'George Friedman {6}' <[email protected]>

Subject: Re: interview request - O'Reilly Factor
can G send me some bullet points by 1230pmCT? Porter prefers that over a
call

* Will Lybia fall? Why/why not?
* If not, is there another ME country that is more likely?
* thoughts on Bahrain, Iran and Yemen - will any of them fall/have
leadership changes?
G will need to be to PacSat at 5pmCT

On 2/21/2011 10:17 AM, Kyle Rhodes wrote:

topic: brief comments on Lybia then a breakdown of Iran, Bahrain and
Yemen - who does George think will fall next, if anyone

approx 4pmCT today

Porter Berry would want to do a preinterview with him over the phone
at some point a little later as well

--
Kyle Rhodes
Public Relations Manager
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com

[email protected]
+1.512.744.4309
www.twitter.com/stratfor
www.facebook.com/stratfor

--
Kyle Rhodes
Public Relations Manager
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com

[email protected]
+1.512.744.4309
www.twitter.com/stratfor
www.facebook.com/stratfor

Source: http://search.wikileaks.org/gifiles/?viewemailid=398546